Suite a F for Fake
lyhen
How reliable experts are statistically?
Do they really know what they are talking about?
Can they really make more informed decision when compared to the average Joe?
Every days, armies of experts, analysts, consultants, pundits and other authorities tell us what opinion to hold, what to drink, what to eat, what art to buy. During the financial crisis of 2008 we discovered that many of the so called 'economy guru' didn't know much at all in reality. And no expert predicted the middle east revolution, although they all had plenty to say afterward.
These experts are our new religion, portrayed as absolute authority in the mainstream media.
Wine experts: It's all about expectations: "Si on attend un vin de qualite, on va chercher ces qualites. Si on a affaire a un vin de soit disante mauvaise qualite alors on recherche les defauts". Ils prefere croire qu'il ont trouver quelque chose de special. Pre-conditionner. Full of shit. Put food die on white wine: not one expert can tell the difference between white and red wine.
L'art du meublage. If they look legit they must be legit.
Art Experts: Also fooled by what they expect to see. London Museum: section full of forgeries that fooled the museum experts for decades. Modern paint on modern canvas: still fool experts. Loose sight of doing proper homework because of the great pressure to be credited as the discoverer of new masterpieces. They all prefer to believe that they discovered something special (ergo of value for the galleries). Greed (financial and scholar) take over the expertise."Even the best experts are failable, they make mistakes, they just never get caught. The best fakes are the one that everybody still believe are legit. Right now, in art museums and galleries, there's lots of fakes, still undetected/"
Wine and art might be a little difficult to juge qualitatively because of the artistic dimension, but the business world is made of facts.
Business experts, management consultants: Advising private companies and governments: "Anyone can do it if they look the part" Be tall, show that you have wealth, demonstrate your expertise by the results. Use buzzwords and jargon. The all field of business consultancy is nothing more than a facade that pretend that business is a science run by numbers. Government and business like to hire experts to cover their ass(ets) so that if things go wrong they can say that they listened to some pretty competent people and they were wrong.
Food experts, diet specialists, nutritionists: What food to eat and not to eat. Most nutrionist have even less qualifications than business consultants. You don't need to a human being to be a member of these professional associations and get a very official looking certificate/diploma. The guy even get a diploma for his dead cat Henrietta as a professional member of the american association of nutrional consultants. The false expert are a huge problem is the science world. Once your getting paid for research it's very hard to stay neutral and there'll always be an angle. So opinions made by experts for pay cannot be trusted to be objective.
Military experts (un peu pete)
Media experts: Media need them for endless 24h cable channel.
Academic experts: "2/3 of studies in top medical journals turn up to be wrong" (?)
Economist experts: "virtually all of the studies published in economic journals are wrong". They though ecomomics was a science. Didn't see the economic bubble burst in 2008.
Home experts: 2week course on line. no background in construction required.
The expert industry keeps growing: installation expert to set our flatscreen tv. Relationship experts. Expert on expert that manufacture expert. Students pay 200-700$ for a day of formation to become pundits and learn to behave as though they were credible experts (Tv exercise expert, sport psychology expert) "never be unsure of anything, the more sure you appear the more chance you have of making a career". Learn to sell certainty. Experts at giving opinions. Huge need for pundits these days: its cheap to have debate, virtually free. It's a fantasy, a very attractive career option. Once you're on TV, you'll be considered to be an expert, and the press and the radio will want you. The more certain they are the more they get quoted in the media even though they are often very wrong. Certainty in expert should be seen as suspicious. Look for uncertain experts that constantly contradict themselves. Certianty are exactly what business consultants are selling. We crave certainty in our lives.
Weather experts: Their long term predictions are no better than chance. "We can't say that the weather has been canceled, we have to predict something".
Prison experts: gives advice to white collars about to do federal time "don't go to places alone, don't go to the showers in the middle of the night" thanks for nothing bud. But many clients are desperate to listen to him.
Growing dependance on experts that creates more of them. Vicious circle. We seek advice on how to live our own life. We look for certainties and the experts give us that. They give us the confidence to make choices and take decisions.
People want to believe that somebody, somewhere, knows, that somebody really understands, because the alternative to this (chaos) is very difficult for people to live with.
Tribe rely on shaman throwing bone to determine which direction to go instead of relying on discussion and expertise: they explore more different paths this way; expertise tend to always come up with similar answers which is detrimental over long term.
8.3/10
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